The objective
Defining a set of indices for assessing and simulating the hazards associated with extreme weather events, appropriately designed to be operational within the geographical, physical, climatic, and economic context of the European continent.
Initial challenge
In recent years, the frequency and severity of weather-induced impacts (e.g., heat waves, floods, windstorms) have dramatically increased, with devastating effects on communities, the environment, and the economy. In the face of such events, it becomes essential to have readily available tools that provide clear, easily comparable information across space and time on the characteristics of the atmospheric events that caused them. Such information makes it possible to distinguish the role of extreme weather events and their evolution over time, while also highlighting how other dynamics may have played a significant part (e.g., changes in the vulnerability or exposure of affected areas). In this sense, climate indicators represent a well-established, synthetic tool that can be used by public bodies, businesses, and policymakers to have common, shared reference parameters for analyzing, forecasting, and assessing the economic damage arising from extreme weather events.
Solution
On January 21, 2021, the European Extreme Events Climate Index – E³CI was presented to the international community, the first index developed in Europe to monitor the occurrence and impact of extreme weather events. The index serves as an indicator of the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, which can prove instrumental in assessing and mitigating the financial consequences of risk, as well as in summarizing and presenting complex data.
E³CI is an “index of indices,” meaning it synthesizes five components related to different atmospheric dynamics: heat waves, cold waves, drought conditions, extreme precipitation, and extreme winds.
Benefits
The Index was developed primarily to enable the assessment of economic and insurance losses linked to the occurrence of extreme weather events, allowing insurance premium rates to be adjusted and improving portfolio and risk management, with benefits for both consumers and insurance companies.
The Index is also able to provide useful data for monitoring climate trends, facilitating the decision-making process for public administrations engaged in building a sustainable development framework.
Among the possible applications in the public sector:
- Supporting the implementation of sustainable development policies;
- Raising awareness among productive sectors about the opportunity to assess resilience and climate change adaptation strategies;
- Monitoring extreme events on a regional basis.
Further developments will include:
- Introducing additional components for dynamics and impacts not currently covered by the indicators in use (e.g., hail events, wildfires);
- Extending the assessment from hazard to risk, also factoring in exposure and vulnerability components;
- Using the indicators not only for retrospective analysis but also for assessments across different future time horizons (from seasonal scale to climate projections);
- Creating an easily accessible E3CI reference portal;
- Calculating E3CI at a more detailed administrative level (regional, provincial);
- Calculating E3CI using higher-resolution reanalysis datasets.
IFAB’s role
IFAB supported E3CIndex throughout its entire development, first as a funding body, selecting the project as part of its investment lines in research and innovation and recognizing its scientific and practical value, and later, at an advanced stage of the project, also as an active technical partner.
The technical contribution focused on maintaining the E3CI synthetic index, the European Extreme Events Climate Index. The work involved structuring the index’s seven components (cold stress, heat stress, drought, heavy precipitation, strong winds, hail, and wildfires) into a coherent analytical framework, and defining a set of indicators to measure the frequency and severity of weather impacts in support of risk assessment and management processes.
IFAB’s dual involvement in E3CIndex (first as a funder, then as a technical partner) reflects Fondazione IFAB’s ability to operate at multiple levels of the innovation chain, contributing both to the economic sustainability of initiatives and to their scientific and methodological content.
Partners
For more information, visit the European Extreme Events Climate Index website.
