What could Italy’s energy system look like in ten years?
IFAB’s new report explores four alternative futures for 2036, focusing on infrastructure, energy consumption, artificial intelligence, edge computing and sustainability. Not a forecast, but a tool for understanding uncertainty and turning it into the capacity to make decisions.
The growth of electrification, the evolution of energy generation and storage sources, rising demand driven by digitalisation, the spread of artificial intelligence and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events are changing the conditions in which energy systems must operate: thinking about the future of energy therefore means engaging with a transformation that simultaneously affects technology, industry, the environment, geopolitics and society.
In this context, simply projecting today’s trends into the future is not enough: this is the awareness behind “Energy 2036 – Four Future Scenarios for the Italian Energy Sector”, the report produced by Fondazione IFAB at the conclusion of the working group it ran with its members on the theme of Energy. A study that tries to answer a question that is simple to formulate but complex in its implications: how might Italy’s energy system work in 2036 in terms of generation, distribution and consumption?
The aim is not to predict which configuration will actually occur. Instead, the report uses Strategic Foresight to build and compare alternative futures, bringing out risks, opportunities and questions that businesses and stakeholders can already use today to guide their decisions.
From the present to 2036: building scenarios to make better decisions today
One of the report’s key strengths lies precisely in the method used to build the scenarios, the result of a Strategic Foresight session involving nine representatives from organisations in the Fondazione IFAB network — Aretè Agrifood, BitBang, EmilBanca, Eni, Fastweb+Vodafone, Hypermeteo, Iconsulting, Lutech and PwC — brought together to pool different skills and perspectives on the future of energy.
The process unfolded in three stages:
- Horizon Scanning
Participants analysed and ranked 26 phenomena potentially relevant to the evolution of the energy system. Among those considered most significant were the growing integration of energy ecosystems, energy and raw material prices, climate change, data sharing as critical infrastructure, and new storage technologies. - Driver Generation
Building on the phenomena identified, the group pinpointed the two critical uncertainties considered most decisive for the future of the sector: on one hand, the evolution of production and storage methods, from traditional to innovative; on the other, the trend in energy consumption, from reactive and optimised to increasingly unpredictable. - Scenario Planning
Crossing the two drivers produced a four-quadrant matrix, each corresponding to a different scenario for 2036. Participants then developed the characteristics of each possible future, identifying its dynamics, threats and opportunities through a process of individual reflection and collective discussion.
The session was supported by a purpose-built digital platform and a hybrid facilitation model, in which a human facilitator and an AI agent performed complementary roles.
During the scenario-building process, each participant was able to develop their own thinking through a structured, individual conversation with an AI agent. The human facilitator, meanwhile, retained methodological oversight, an overall view of the process and responsibility for the collective discussion.
This is a use of artificial intelligence that goes beyond automation: the technology is used to increase participation and depth of reflection, allowing each member of the group to build their own position before the shared discussion.
This, too, is a central element of IFAB’s approach: putting advanced technologies at the service of concrete processes of innovation, knowledge and decision-making.
This process gave rise to the four Energy 2036 scenarios: Fragile Balance, Adaptive Energy, Energy Inertia and Grid Resilience. These are not simple forecasts, but new and useful analytical tools for exploring uncertainty and understanding which decisions, investments and strategies may prove most effective in the face of different developments in the energy system.
→ Fragile Balance
A possible but vulnerable balance: growing electrification may push demand beyond the gains achieved through efficiency, while dependence on traditional sources, geopolitical risks and growing complexity in price management all persist.
→ Adaptive Energy
A majority of participants identified Adaptive Energy as the scenario considered most likely by 2036. This assessment should not be read as a forecast, but as a further point of comparison: the optimisation of consumption is seen as a difficult-to-reverse trend, driven by the need to increase efficiency, contain costs and reduce exposure to energy shocks.
→ Energy Inertia
Innovation can also stem from the pressure placed on existing systems: demand flexibility can become a resource, new markets for energy services can develop, and the modernisation of infrastructure can generate industrial and employment opportunities.
→ Grid Resilience
Resilience takes on central importance. Artificial intelligence and edge computing make it possible to process data and take operational decisions ever closer to real time, while human beings retain control over medium-term strategy. Alongside these opportunities, however, come greater responsibilities: AI governance, cybersecurity, geopolitical scenarios and the impact of climate change become inseparable elements of the design of future energy grids.
The value of foresight for Italy’s innovation ecosystem
The energy transition shows particularly clearly why innovation can no longer be tackled through isolated areas of expertise: energy, artificial intelligence, computing infrastructure, data, industry, climate and geopolitics are systems that constantly interact, and understanding them requires the ability to bring research, technology and the productive world into dialogue.
It is in this connection that IFAB’s role in Italy’s innovation ecosystem takes shape: creating places and tools through which businesses, research and stakeholders can discuss ongoing transformations, access advanced expertise and turn knowledge into concrete projects.
The questions Energy 2036 leaves open
One sign of the quality of a foresight exercise is its ability to go beyond the answers already reached and bring new questions to the surface. The conclusions of Energy 2036 highlight two in particular, both crucial to understanding how the energy transition may affect Italy’s economic and production system.
What role will Italian industry and manufacturing play in the energy transition?
Who will bear the costs of the transition, and how will they be distributed among businesses, citizens and institutions?
These are questions that broaden the scope of reflection beyond the strictly technological dimension and show how much the future of energy requires connecting technological, industrial, economic, social and institutional expertise. It is precisely in this context that foresight expresses one of its most concrete values: not trying to guess which future will come about, but making the decisions we can take today more informed and more robust.
Download “Energy 2036” and explore the four scenarios in depth
Complete the form below to receive the full report “Energy 2036 – Four Future Scenarios for the Italian Energy Sector” to learn more about the Strategic Foresight methodology adopted by IFAB, explore the four scenarios in detail, and discover the threats, opportunities and phenomena that the Energy Thematic Working Group identified as most relevant to the future of the sector.
