Fondazione IFAB has released the latest edition of “How Is Italy Doing?”, its annual report on extreme weather events in Italy based on the European Extreme Events Climate Index (E3CI). The report provides an updated analysis of the period September 2024 – August 2025, combining climate data, advanced modelling and high-performance computing to understand how climate risk is evolving nationwide.
The report is part of a project promoted and funded by Fondazione IFAB and reflects the Foundation’s broader commitment to leveraging Big Data to transform scientific research into practical tools that support both public and private decision-making.
An index to interpret events beyond the norm
The European Extreme Events Climate Index was developed to objectively measure how much a weather event deviates from historically “normal” conditions. Built on long-term climate time series, the index monitors seven key dynamics — including drought, extreme heat and cold, heavy precipitation, strong winds, wildfires and hail — delivering a standardised metric that is comparable across time and geographical areas.
This approach makes it possible not only to assess overall national trends, but also to identify local differences and vulnerabilities, a crucial aspect in a country with as much climatic diversity as Italy.
What the 2024/2025 data show
The analysis of the most recent hydrological year confirms several well-established signals. Extreme maximum temperatures remain the most prominent feature, with multiple months exceeding historical thresholds and a strong persistence during the summer period. At the same time, episodes of extreme minimum temperatures are becoming increasingly rare, pointing to a gradual weakening of severe cold events.
Other phenomena — such as extreme rainfall, drought or intense wind events — do not always stand out at national level, but reveal significant regional peaks, often concentrated in specific areas and periods of the year. This territorial dimension clearly shows why climate risk cannot be understood through averages alone, but requires high-resolution analysis.
A long-term trend that cannot be ignored
By placing annual results within a long-term perspective and analysing more than forty years of data, the E3CI report highlights a clear pattern: over recent decades, the number of months affected by out-of-the-ordinary weather events has increased, with a marked acceleration in the most recent period. These are not isolated anomalies, but part of a structural evolution that poses new challenges for territories, businesses and institutions.
Another key insight concerns the changing geography of climate risk. Over time, certain phenomena shift between Northern, Central and Southern Italy, reshaping areas of exposure and reinforcing the need for continuous, up-to-date monitoring.
From climate data to economic and social decision-making
One of the most innovative aspects of the E3CI project is its strong application-oriented focus. The index can support decision-making in key sectors such as insurance, energy, infrastructure, agriculture, urban planning and economic analysis. The report also presents examples of how E3CI can be used to explore the relationship between extreme climate events and macroeconomic dynamics, including food price trends, showing how climate shocks can generate delayed effects over time.
IFAB’s role
With this report, Fondazione IFAB reinforces its role as a hub of expertise connecting scientific research, supercomputing infrastructures and the productive ecosystem, providing skills, technologies and advanced analytical capabilities. Through the ecosystem of the Bologna Technopole and a strong national and international partner network, IFAB enables the development of innovative tools to support climate adaptation and resilience strategies.
The “How Is Italy Doing?” 2024/2025 report is available for download at the dedicated website.
